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VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
C. Marshall 82'
P. Hofmann 27'
F. Onyeka 11'
L. Morgalla 68' (OG)
I. Lidberg 36'
F. Hornby 7'
1/18/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

VfL Bochum50%
×Draw22%
SV Darmstadt 9828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Bochum
1.92
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38

VfL Bochum creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

VfL Bochum
2.01
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

VfL Bochum
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw
72%
VfL Bochum or SV Darmstadt 98
78%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
50%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+
28%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals
85%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
57%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
30%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
75%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
40%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
64%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

VfL Bochum scores more
50%
level
22%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
28%

VfL Bochum at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
P. HofmannVfL BochumVfL Bochum · F
8.5

Match Events

3'
Farid Alfa-Ruprecht
7'
F. Hornby↳ M. Richter
11'
F. Onyeka
27'
P. Hofmann
36'
I. Lidberg↳ S. Lopez
61'
K. Miyoshi← M. Kwarteng
61'
M. Papela← F. Hornby
64'
Kai Klefisch
68'
L. MorgallaOwn goal
71'
A. Vukotic← F. Holland
74'
F. Passlack← L. Morgalla
74'
C. Marshall← C. Lenz
82'
C. Marshall
84'
P. Will← H. Akiyama
84'
F. Lakenmacher← M. Richter
86'
Matondo-Merveille Papela
86'
K. Watjen← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

Possession

57%VfL

Shots

20VfL

Pass accuracy

51%VfL

Statistics

VfLSV
Overview
57%Possession43%
20Total Shots7
8Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots7
6On Target3
7Off Target3
7Blocked1
14Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
483Total Passes367
409Accurate Passes301
85%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs SV Darmstadt 98

VfL Bochum and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 3-3 in 2. Bundesliga on January 18, 2026.

Goals: F. Hornby (7'), F. Onyeka (11'), P. Hofmann (27'), I. Lidberg (36'), L. Morgalla (68' o.g.), C. Marshall (82').

VfL Bochum controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.