SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vfl Bochum

3/7/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 25Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9855%

×Draw21%

Vfl Bochum24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.32

SV Darmstadt 98

2.10

Vfl Bochum

1.32

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.26

creates per match

1.29

1.35

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.26

Vfl Bochum

1.29

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.35

Vfl Bochum

1.95

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.15scores less

Vfl Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

76%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Vfl Bochum

79%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

45%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

33%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

88%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

62%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

35%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

73%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

38%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

70%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.26 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

55%

level

21%

Vfl Bochum scores more

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Y. Stark

SV Darmstadt 98 · M

7.7

Match Events

40'

43'

56'

61'

64'

74'

Paik Seung-Ho← Y. Stark

83'

M. Heller← M. Mehlem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVVfl

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots9

9Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target0

8Off Target5

4Blocked4

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

420Total Passes431

302Accurate Passes322

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 Vfl Bochum

SV Darmstadt 98 and Vfl Bochum drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 7, 2020.

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Darmstadt.

SV Darmstadt 98 vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 Vfl Bochum