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VfL Bochum vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
8/30/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 4Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

VfL Bochum54%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Bochum
1.91
Preußen Münster
1.21

VfL Bochum creates 58% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

VfL Bochum
2.03
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

VfL Bochum
1.28
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw
76%
VfL Bochum or Preußen Münster
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster
46%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+
31%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals
85%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
57%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
30%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
70%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
34%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
69%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.03 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.91

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfL Bochum scores more
54%
level
22%
Preußen Münster scores more
24%

VfL Bochum at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Preußen Münster

Preußen Münster beat VfL Bochum 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.