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Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
2/6/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 21Preussenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster38%
×Draw27%
VfL Bochum35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster
1.29
VfL Bochum
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.19

allows per match

Preußen Münster
1.26
VfL Bochum
1.44

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par
VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

VfL Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw
65%
Preußen Münster or VfL Bochum
73%
Draw or VfL Bochum
62%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+
17%
VfL Bochum wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
37%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
14%
VfL Bochum 1+ goals
71%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
35%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
52%
VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + VfL Bochum defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

VfL Bochum attack 1.19 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preußen Münster scores more
38%
level
27%
VfL Bochum scores more
35%

Preußen Münster at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Preußen Münster 1–1 VfL Bochum

Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 6, 2026.

The match was played at Preussenstadion in Munster.