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VfL Bochum vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
P. Hofmann 66', 14'
J. Therkelsen 70'
P. Harres 45'
K. Davidsen 8'
3/22/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 27Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum56%
×Draw21%
Holstein Kiel23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Bochum
2.07
Holstein Kiel
1.24

VfL Bochum creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

VfL Bochum
2.01
Holstein Kiel
1.20

allows per match

VfL Bochum
1.28
Holstein Kiel
2.13

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less
Holstein Kiel+0.22scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw
77%
VfL Bochum or Holstein Kiel
79%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
44%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+
34%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals
87%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
61%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
34%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
71%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
35%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
71%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + Holstein Kiel defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.07

Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VfL Bochum scores more
56%
level
21%
Holstein Kiel scores more
23%

VfL Bochum at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
P. HofmannVfL BochumVfL Bochum · F
8.9

Match Events

-5'
Niclas Thiede
8'
K. Davidsen↳ S. Skrzybski
14'
P. Hofmann
20'
F. Roslyng← M. Komenda
35'
Frederik Roslyng
45'
P. Harres↳ A. Kapralik
47'
Matúš Bero
58'
Matúš Bero
58'
Matúš Bero
59'
M. Kwarteng← G. Holtmann
59'
F. Onyeka← C. Marshall
59'
U. Tohumcu← S. Skrzybski
65'
Umut Tohumcu
66'
P. Hofmann↳ M. Wittek
70'
J. Therkelsen↳ J. Meffert
71'
L. Morgalla← E. Masovic
71'
C. Lenz← M. Pannewig
74'
Maximilian Wittek
74'
Kasper Davidsen
77'
K. Watjen← K. Miyoshi
83'
N. Niehoff← L. Rosenboom
89'
Timon Weiner
90+9'
Umut Tohumcu
90+9'
Umut Tohumcu

Possession

47%VfL

Shots

20VfL

Pass accuracy

47%VfL

Statistics

VfLHolstein
Overview
47%Possession53%
20Total Shots10
0.96Expected Goals (xG)1.93
2Corners3
11Fouls22
Shots
20Total Shots10
10On Target4
5Off Target4
5Blocked2
15Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
352Total Passes414
263Accurate Passes343
75%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08
Discipline
11Fouls22
4Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel beat VfL Bochum 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on March 22, 2026.

Goals: K. Davidsen (8'), P. Hofmann (14', 66'), P. Harres (45'), J. Therkelsen (70').

Holstein Kiel controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.