Holstein Kiel vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Holstein Kiel47%
Vfl Bochum29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Holstein Kiel creates 33% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Holstein Kiel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 11 matches
Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Holstein Kiel attack 1.32 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64
Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Holstein Kiel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC NürnbergVfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo DresdenHolstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Holstein Kiel host Vfl Bochum on Friday, 4 December 2020 at 17:30. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 3–1 Vfl Bochum
Holstein Kiel beat Vfl Bochum 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 4, 2020.
Goals: A. Mühling (31' pen), S. Zoller (32'), F. Bartels (64'), Lee Jae-Sung (65').
Vfl Bochum controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 12.
The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.