VfL Bochum 1–1 Hannover 96: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hannover 96

F. Alfa-Ruprecht 55'

M. Nawrocki 50'

5/9/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum42%

×Draw24%

Hannover 9634%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

VfL Bochum

1.63

Hannover 96

1.46

VfL Bochum creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

1.63

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

VfL Bochum

2.01

Hannover 96

1.63

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.28

Hannover 96

1.24

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less

Hannover 96+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Hannover 96 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

66%

VfL Bochum or Hannover 96

76%

Draw or Hannover 96

58%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

21%

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

80%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

48%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

22%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

77%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

43%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

55%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + Hannover 96 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hannover 96 attack 1.63 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

42%

level

24%

Hannover 96 scores more

34%

VfL Bochum at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Nawrocki

Hannover 96 · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

K. Watjen← M. Pannewig

19'

Moritz Kwarteng

46'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht← K. Miyoshi

46'

E. Saad← M. Bundu

46'

K. Oudenne← S. T. Thordarson

50'

M. Nawrocki↳ E. Saad

55'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht↳ N. Loosli

59'

Oliver Olsen

62'

G. Holtmann← M. Kwarteng

63'

Bastian Allgeier

69'

I. Okon← B. Allgeier

69'

W. Taibi← B. Kallman

75'

K. Vogt←

76'

K. Koscierski← L. Morgalla

77'

Noël Aséko

79'

Matúš Bero

90+1'

V. Ghita← B. Tomiak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLHannover

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots10

1.22Expected Goals (xG)0.83

4Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots10

2On Target1

6Off Target9

2Blocked0

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

371Total Passes539

291Accurate Passes459

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Hannover 96

VfL Bochum and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Nawrocki (50'), F. Alfa-Ruprecht (55').

Hannover 96 controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Hannover 96