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Hannover 96 vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
M. Ducksch 60' (pen)
V. Sulejmani 2'
12/15/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 12HDI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hannover 9656%
×Draw21%
Vfl Bochum22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
2.03
Vfl Bochum
1.21

Hannover 96 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
2.11
Vfl Bochum
1.29

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.12
Vfl Bochum
1.95

finishing

Hannover 96-0.41scores less
Vfl Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
78%
Hannover 96 or Vfl Bochum
79%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
44%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
33%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
87%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
60%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
33%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
70%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
34%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
71%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 2.11 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.03

Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + Hannover 96 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
56%
level
21%
Vfl Bochum scores more
22%

Hannover 96 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. DuckschHannover 96Hannover 96 · M
9.2

Match Events

2'
V. Sulejmani↳ M. Ducksch
18'
Vasilis Lampropoulos
41'
Cristian Gamboa
46'
P. Ochs← V. Sulejmani
46'
S. Novothny← G. Holtmann
46'
A. Bella-Kotchap← M. Leitsch
51'
Sei Muroya
60'
M. DuckschPenalty
61'
S. Falette← N. Hult
72'
S. Ganvoula← D. Blum
72'
M. Pantović← R. Chibsah
75'
Marvin Ducksch
82'
E. Mašović← K. Lambropoulos
83'
P. Twumasi← K. Schindler
87'
B. Başdaş← M. Ducksch
90'
Robert Žulj

Possession

36%Hannover

Shots

17Hannover

Pass accuracy

44%Hannover

Statistics

HannoverVfl
Overview
36%Possession64%
17Total Shots8
5Corners4
24Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots8
11On Target0
6Off Target5
0Blocked3
14Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
289Total Passes521
172Accurate Passes399
60%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves9
Discipline
24Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Hannover 96 vs Vfl Bochum

Hannover 96 beat Vfl Bochum 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 15, 2020.

Goals: V. Sulejmani (2'), M. Ducksch (60' pen).

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (64%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at HDI-Arena in Hannover.