Vfl Bochum 2–2 Dynamo Dresden: Result & Stats

Vfl Bochum

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Dresden

A. Losilla 85'

D. Blum 79'

M. Koné 63'

A. Jeremejeff 46'

9/15/2019

2. Bundesliga · Round 6Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vfl Bochum51%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.22

Vfl Bochum

1.81

Dynamo Dresden

1.22

Vfl Bochum creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.01

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

2.01

Dynamo Dresden

1.16

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.28

Dynamo Dresden

1.62

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Vfl Bochum-0.28scores less

Dynamo Dresden+0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

74%

Vfl Bochum or Dynamo Dresden

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

49%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

28%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

84%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

54%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

27%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

66%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.62 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 2.01 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.16 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

51%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

26%

Vfl Bochum at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Blum

Vfl Bochum · F

8.5

Match Events

23'

26'

30'

40'

46'

A. Jeremejeff↳ C. Löwe

57'

M. Koné← S. Horvath

59'

B. Hamalainen← C. Löwe

61'

D. Blum← S. Maier

63'

M. Koné↳ A. Jeremejeff

69'

Anthony Losilla

72'

M. Wintzheimer← T. Eisfeld

79'

D. Blum↳ S. Ganvoula

80'

S. Zoller← C. Gamboa

80'

M. Hartmann← F. Ballas

85'

A. Losilla↳ D. Blum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VflDynamo

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots8

7Corners1

11Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots8

7On Target5

12Off Target1

3Blocked2

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

439Total Passes381

328Accurate Passes260

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2