Dynamo Dresden 2–0 VfL Bochum: Result & Stats

Dynamo Dresden

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

VfL Bochum

V. Vermeij 58'

J. Ceka 5'

4/18/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 30Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Dynamo Dresden54%

×Draw23%

VfL Bochum23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchVfL Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.12

Dynamo Dresden

1.85

VfL Bochum

1.12

Dynamo Dresden creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.76

creates per match

1.29

0.95

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.76

VfL Bochum

1.29

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

0.95

VfL Bochum

1.95

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.15scores more

VfL Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

VfL Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

77%

Dynamo Dresden or VfL Bochum

77%

Draw or VfL Bochum

46%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

31%

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

84%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

55%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

28%

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

67%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

31%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

70%

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.76 + VfL Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

VfL Bochum attack 1.29 + Dynamo Dresden defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

54%

level

23%

VfL Bochum scores more

23%

Dynamo Dresden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

B. Bobzien

Dynamo Dresden · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

J. Ceka↳ B. Bobzien

34'

Erhan Mašović

54'

Leandro Morgalla

58'

V. Vermeij↳ B. Bobzien

64'

K. Watjen← C. Marshall

64'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht← G. Holtmann

69'

J. Lemmer← J. Ceka

74'

T. Menzel← N. Hauptmann

74'

L. Boeder← K. Amoako

76'

K. Vogt← E. Masovic

76'

K. Koscierski← K. Miyoshi

82'

M. Kwarteng← L. Morgalla

85'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

85'

L. Herrmann← R. Wagner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoVfL

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots13

1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.65

4Corners5

9Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots13

6On Target5

1Off Target6

2Blocked2

9Inside Box10

0Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

509Total Passes486

419Accurate Passes398

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

1.29Goals Prevented1.29

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2