VfL Bochum 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld

P. Hofmann 70'

12/6/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum54%

×Draw22%

Arminia Bielefeld23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.17

VfL Bochum

1.90

Arminia Bielefeld

1.17

VfL Bochum creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

2.01

creates per match

1.06

1.28

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

VfL Bochum

2.01

Arminia Bielefeld

1.06

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.28

Arminia Bielefeld

1.78

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less

Arminia Bielefeld+0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

77%

VfL Bochum or Arminia Bielefeld

78%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

46%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

31%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

85%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

56%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

29%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

69%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

33%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

70%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.90

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.06 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

54%

level

22%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

23%

VfL Bochum at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Horn

VfL Bochum · G

8.6

Match Events

18'

Farid Alfa-Ruprecht

34'

Kjell Wätjen

59'

M. Worl← B. Boakye

59'

J. Kania← J. Grodowski

61'

Monju Momuluh

62'

F. Passlack← L. Morgalla

63'

M. Bero← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

63'

M. Kwarteng← K. Watjen

70'

P. Hofmann↳ M. Kwarteng

75'

N. Sarenren Bazee← T. Momuluh

76'

L. Schneider← S. Russo

80'

Cajetan Lenz

80'

I. Sissoko← M. Pannewig

82'

Marius Wörl

85'

Philipp Strompf

85'

I. Young← M. Mehlem

87'

K. Koscierski← M. Wittek

88'

Philipp Hofmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLArminia

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots15

2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.85

4Corners5

22Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target6

5Off Target5

1Blocked4

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

287Total Passes412

202Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld

VfL Bochum beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.

Goals: P. Hofmann (70').

Arminia Bielefeld controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld