Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld

1.35

Vfl Bochum

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.70

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.70

Vfl Bochum

1.38

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.50

Vfl Bochum

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

61%

Arminia Bielefeld or Vfl Bochum

75%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

65%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

16%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

74%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

39%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

15%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

76%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

42%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

47%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.70 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vfl Bochum attack 1.38 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

35%

level

25%

Vfl Bochum scores more

39%

Vfl Bochum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Kersken

Arminia Bielefeld · G

8.2

Match Events

25'

N. Shipnoski↳ M. Wintzheimer

29'

33'

45+2'

46'

56'

63'

63'

L. Oppie← N. Shipnoski

68'

N. Boujellab← C. Özkan

69'

M. Broschinski← A. Losilla

77'

C. Gamboa← F. Passlack

82'

Erhan Mašović

83'

S. Zoller← C. Antwi-Adjei

90+4'

Sam Schreck

90+1'

L. Schneider← M. Biankadi

90+1'

S. Zoller↳ K. Stöger

105'

P. Osterhage← T. Asano

108'

Matúš Bero

115'

Jonas Thomas Kersken

115'

Simon Zoller

119'

M. Großer← C. Lannert

120+1'

Nassim Boujellab

120+1'

F. KlosPenalty

120+2'

P. HofmannMissed penalty

120+3'

G. GohlkePenalty

120+4'

K. StögerMissed penalty

120+5'

M. WintzheimerPenalty

120+6'

E. MašovićPenalty

120+7'

K. MizutaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArminiaVfl

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots22

3Corners8

17Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots22

2On Target7

4Off Target9

0Blocked6

5Inside Box15

1Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

367Total Passes494

180Accurate Passes325

49%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4