VfB Stuttgart 6–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

VfB Stuttgart

FT

6 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VfB Stuttgart53%

×Draw19%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.83

VfB Stuttgart

2.53

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.83

VfB Stuttgart creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

3.43

creates per match

2.38

1.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

3.43

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.38

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.29

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

72%

VfB Stuttgart or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

81%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

47%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

33%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

92%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

71%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

46%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

84%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

54%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

65%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 3.43 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.53

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 2.38 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

53%

level

19%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

28%

VfB Stuttgart at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: VfB Stuttgart 6–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

VfB Stuttgart beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.

VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: VfB Stuttgart 6–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth