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VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
9/21/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 7Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VfB Stuttgart57%
×Draw22%
SpVgg Greuther Furth21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfB Stuttgart
1.90
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.06

VfB Stuttgart creates 79% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 120 away

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart
2.12
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart
0.88
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw
79%
VfB Stuttgart or SpVgg Greuther Furth
78%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
43%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+
33%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals
85%
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
56%
VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals
29%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
65%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
29%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)
73%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 2.12 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more
57%
level
22%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
21%

VfB Stuttgart at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth

VfB Stuttgart beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Stuttgart.