VfB Stuttgart vs Jahn Regensburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
VfB Stuttgart61%
Jahn Regensburg18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
VfB Stuttgart creates 99% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
VfB Stuttgart ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches
Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
VfB Stuttgart attack 2.11 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.03
Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
VfB Stuttgart at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart host Jahn Regensburg on Saturday, 22 February 2020 at 12:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
VfB Stuttgart 2 – 0 Jahn Regensburg
VfB Stuttgart beat Jahn Regensburg 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 22, 2020.
Goals: D. Didavi (58'), G. Castro (59').
VfB Stuttgart controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 10.
The match was played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Stuttgart.