SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 VfB Stuttgart

SSV Jahn Regensburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

VfB Stuttgart

N. Woltemade 61'

A. Chase 19'

E. Millot 10'

12/3/2024

DFB Pokal · Round of 16Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg12%

×Draw21%

VfB Stuttgart67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.91

SSV Jahn Regensburg

0.67

VfB Stuttgart

1.91

VfB Stuttgart creates 185% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

0.57

creates per match

2.24

1.57

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

0.57

VfB Stuttgart

2.24

allows per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.57

VfB Stuttgart

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jahn Regensburg ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–115%

0–214%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw

33%

SSV Jahn Regensburg or VfB Stuttgart

79%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

88%

Winning margin

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

3%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

49%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

15%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

3%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

85%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

57%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

16%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.57 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

VfB Stuttgart attack 2.24 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

12%

level

21%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

67%

VfB Stuttgart at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Woltemade

VfB Stuttgart · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

E. Millot↳ N. Woltemade

19'

A. Chase↳ P. Stenzel

38'

Eric Hottmann

59'

E. Demirović← E. Millot

59'

J. Diehl← C. Führich

61'

N. Woltemade

64'

N. Ganaus← E. Hottmann

66'

A. Karazor← A. Stiller

75'

R. Ziegele← B. Hein

75'

C. Kühlwetter← A. Bittroff

76'

77'

81'

81'

81'

J. Malanga← F. Rieder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVVfB

Overview

30%Possession70%

7Total Shots14

5Corners7

12Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target8

1Off Target1

4Blocked5

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

251Total Passes622

184Accurate Passes545

73%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0