VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FSV Mainz 05: Result & Stats

VfB Stuttgart

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FSV Mainz 05

S. Guirassy 36'

M. Ingvartsen 40' (pen)

1/21/2023

Bundesliga · Round 16Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

VfB Stuttgart48%

×Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0529%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.35

VfB Stuttgart

1.82

FSV Mainz 05

1.35

VfB Stuttgart creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

1.88

creates per match

1.43

1.27

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.88

FSV Mainz 05

1.43

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.27

FSV Mainz 05

1.76

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.15scores less

FSV Mainz 05-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

71%

VfB Stuttgart or FSV Mainz 05

77%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

52%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

27%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

84%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

54%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

27%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

74%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

39%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

63%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.88 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.43 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

48%

level

23%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

29%

VfB Stuttgart at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

K. Mavropanos

VfB Stuttgart · D

8.0

Match Events

36'

S. Guirassy↳ W. Endo

39'

Leandro BarreiroPenalty confirmed

40'

M. IngvartsenPenalty

62'

Dominik Kohr

65'

Lee Jae-Sung← M. Ingvartsen

70'

Silas Katompa Mvumpa

77'

C. Führich← Tiago Tomás

77'

J. Vagnoman← N. Nartey

78'

A. Stach← A. Barkok

79'

Leandro Barreiro

87'

A. Fulgini← L. Barreiro

90+1'

Angelo Fulgini

90'

T. Kastanaras← S. Katompa Mvumpa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfBFSV

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots13

1.91Expected Goals (xG)1.47

3Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target2

7Off Target7

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

551Total Passes431

470Accurate Passes326

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FSV Mainz 05

VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on January 21, 2023.

Goals: S. Guirassy (36'), M. Ingvartsen (40' pen).

VfB Stuttgart controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Stuttgart.

VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FSV Mainz 05