FSV Mainz 05 1–4 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.47

FSV Mainz 05

1.71

VfB Stuttgart

1.47

FSV Mainz 05 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

1.65

creates per match

1.58

1.36

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.65

VfB Stuttgart

1.58

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.36

VfB Stuttgart

1.76

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

FSV Mainz 05-0.25scores less

VfB Stuttgart+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

67%

FSV Mainz 05 or VfB Stuttgart

77%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

57%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

23%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

82%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

51%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

24%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

77%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

43%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

57%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.65 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.58 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

43%

level

23%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

33%

FSV Mainz 05 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Führich

VfB Stuttgart · M

8.6

Match Events

23'

M. Ingvartsen

41'

W. Endo

61'

Dominik Kohr

62'

C. Führich← Tiago Tomás

64'

S. Guirassy↳ C. Führich

65'

Lee Jae-Sung← A. Barkok

71'

K. Mavropanos← D. Zagadou

72'

L. Ajorque← M. Ingvartsen

73'

Wataru Endo

75'

Stefan Bell

78'

C. Führich↳ W. Endo

86'

Aarón Martín← A. Caci

86'

N. Weiper← S. Bell

86'

P. Stenzel← N. Nartey

86'

T. Coulibaly← S. Katompa Mvumpa

86'

G. Haraguchi← S. Guirassy

90+5'

Ludovic Ajorque

90+1'

T. Coulibaly↳ C. Führich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FSVVfB

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots7

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.78

6Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target6

1Off Target1

3Blocked0

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

421Total Passes486

325Accurate Passes403

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0