VfB Oldenburg 1–1 BW Lohne: Result & Stats

VfB Oldenburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BW Lohne

M. Facklam 37'

F. Schmiederer 69'

3/13/2026

League #84 · North - 26Marschweg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VfB Oldenburg37%

×Draw21%

BW Lohne42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB OldenburgExpected goals in this matchBW Lohne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.10

VfB Oldenburg

1.95

BW Lohne

2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.20

2.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

VfB Oldenburg

1.50

BW Lohne

2.20

allows per match

VfB Oldenburg

2.00

BW Lohne

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfB Oldenburg+0.00on par

BW Lohne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Oldenburg ↓

BW Lohne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

VfB Oldenburg or draw

58%

VfB Oldenburg or BW Lohne

79%

Draw or BW Lohne

63%

Winning margin

VfB Oldenburg wins by 2+

20%

BW Lohne wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

VfB Oldenburg 1+ goals

86%

VfB Oldenburg 2+ goals

58%

VfB Oldenburg 3+ goals

31%

BW Lohne 1+ goals

88%

BW Lohne 2+ goals

62%

BW Lohne 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

VfB Oldenburg (draw refunded)

46%

BW Lohne (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Oldenburg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

BW Lohne away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Oldenburg attack 1.50 + BW Lohne defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

BW Lohne attack 2.20 + VfB Oldenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VfB Oldenburg scores more

37%

level

21%

BW Lohne scores more

42%

BW Lohne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BW Lohne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Facklam

69'

F. Schmiederer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff