BW Lohne vs VfB Oldenburg — League #84 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
BW Lohne20%
VfB Oldenburg54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
VfB Oldenburg creates 85% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
BW Lohne ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
BW Lohne at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches
VfB Oldenburg away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
BW Lohne attack 1.14 + VfB Oldenburg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85
VfB Oldenburg attack 1.43 + BW Lohne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
VfB Oldenburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "VfB Oldenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
SV Drochtersen/Assel
SV Meppen
Phönix Lübeck
Kickers Emden
Bremer SVVfB Oldenburg
HSC Hannover
Altona 93
Weiche Flensburg
Hamburger SV II
Hannover 96 II
Werder Bremen II
SSV Jeddeloh
Eintracht Norderstedt
St. Pauli II
VfB LübeckBW Lohne
SchöningenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
BW Lohne host VfB Oldenburg on Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 13:30. The match is part of the League #84 2026/2027 season.
BW Lohne 0 – 2 VfB Oldenburg
VfB Oldenburg beat BW Lohne 2-0 in League #84 on May 18, 2024.
Goals: R. Brand (18' pen, 80').
The match was played at Heinz-Dettmer-Stadion in Lohne.