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VfB Oldenburg vs Bremer SV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfB Oldenburg
VfB Oldenburg
FT
4 – 0
Bremer SV
Bremer SV
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VfB Oldenburg34%
×Draw22%
Bremer SV44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfB Oldenburg
1.70
Bremer SV
1.94

Bremer SV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

VfB Oldenburg
1.25
Bremer SV
1.14

allows per match

VfB Oldenburg
2.75
Bremer SV
2.14

finishing

VfB Oldenburg+0.00on par
Bremer SV+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Oldenburg ↓

Bremer SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

VfB Oldenburg or draw
56%
VfB Oldenburg or Bremer SV
78%
Draw or Bremer SV
66%

Winning margin

VfB Oldenburg wins by 2+
17%
Bremer SV wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

VfB Oldenburg 1+ goals
82%
VfB Oldenburg 2+ goals
51%
VfB Oldenburg 3+ goals
24%
Bremer SV 1+ goals
86%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
58%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VfB Oldenburg (draw refunded)
44%
Bremer SV (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Oldenburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Bremer SV away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Oldenburg attack 1.25 + Bremer SV defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bremer SV attack 1.14 + VfB Oldenburg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VfB Oldenburg scores more
34%
level
22%
Bremer SV scores more
44%

Bremer SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

VfB
Bremer
D. Fossi
Manager: D. Fossi
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć

Match Recap: VfB Oldenburg vs Bremer SV

VfB Oldenburg beat Bremer SV 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.