Bremer Sv 0–6 VfB Oldenburg: Result & Stats

Bremer Sv

FT

0 – 6

VfB Oldenburg

3/7/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage am Hohweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bremer Sv12%

×Draw13%

VfB Oldenburg75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bremer SvExpected goals in this matchVfB Oldenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

3.33

Bremer Sv

1.31

VfB Oldenburg

3.33

VfB Oldenburg creates 154% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

3.90

2.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bremer Sv

1.63

VfB Oldenburg

3.90

allows per match

Bremer Sv

2.75

VfB Oldenburg

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bremer Sv+0.00on par

VfB Oldenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer Sv ↓

VfB Oldenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Bremer Sv or draw

25%

Bremer Sv or VfB Oldenburg

87%

Draw or VfB Oldenburg

88%

Winning margin

Bremer Sv wins by 2+

4%

VfB Oldenburg wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Bremer Sv 1+ goals

73%

Bremer Sv 2+ goals

38%

Bremer Sv 3+ goals

14%

VfB Oldenburg 1+ goals

96%

VfB Oldenburg 2+ goals

84%

VfB Oldenburg 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Bremer Sv (draw refunded)

14%

VfB Oldenburg (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer Sv at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

VfB Oldenburg away — creates 3.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer Sv attack 1.63 + VfB Oldenburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

VfB Oldenburg attack 3.90 + Bremer Sv defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bremer Sv scores more

12%

level

13%

VfB Oldenburg scores more

75%

VfB Oldenburg at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "VfB Oldenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff