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Vfb Marburg vs Hanau 93 — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hanau 93
Hanau 93
8/23/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 5Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vfb Marburg45%
×Draw23%
Hanau 9332%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfb Marburg
1.79
Hanau 93
1.48

Vfb Marburg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vfb Marburg
1.38
Hanau 93
1.48

allows per match

Vfb Marburg
1.48
Hanau 93
2.21

finishing

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par
Hanau 93+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfb Marburg ↓

Hanau 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vfb Marburg or draw
68%
Vfb Marburg or Hanau 93
77%
Draw or Hanau 93
55%

Winning margin

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
24%
Hanau 93 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
83%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
53%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
26%
Hanau 93 1+ goals
77%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
43%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
58%
Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfb Marburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Hanau 93 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfb Marburg attack 1.38 + Hanau 93 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hanau 93 attack 1.48 + Vfb Marburg defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vfb Marburg scores more
45%
level
23%
Hanau 93 scores more
32%

Vfb Marburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vfb Marburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Vfb Marburg 1–0 Hanau 93

Vfb Marburg beat Hanau 93 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße in Marburg.