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Hanau 93 vs Vfb Marburg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hanau 93
Hanau 93
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
2/24/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 21Maintal-Dörnigheim Kunstrasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hanau 9348%
×Draw22%
Vfb Marburg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanau 93
1.95
Vfb Marburg
1.51

Hanau 93 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hanau 93
1.77
Vfb Marburg
1.31

allows per match

Hanau 93
1.71
Vfb Marburg
2.13

finishing

Hanau 93+0.00on par
Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanau 93 ↓

Vfb Marburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hanau 93 or draw
70%
Hanau 93 or Vfb Marburg
78%
Draw or Vfb Marburg
52%

Winning margin

Hanau 93 wins by 2+
27%
Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hanau 93 1+ goals
86%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
58%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
31%
Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
78%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
44%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
61%
Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanau 93 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanau 93 attack 1.77 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.95

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + Hanau 93 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hanau 93 scores more
48%
level
22%
Vfb Marburg scores more
30%

Hanau 93 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hanau 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hanau 93 vs Vfb Marburg

Hanau 93 beat Vfb Marburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Maintal-Dörnigheim Kunstrasenplatz 1 in Maintal.