Vfb Marburg 3–4 Friedberg: Result & Stats

Vfb Marburg

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Friedberg

4/18/2026

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 28Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vfb Marburg33%

×Draw24%

Friedberg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfb MarburgExpected goals in this matchFriedberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.69

Vfb Marburg

1.45

Friedberg

1.69

Friedberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 92 away

1.38

creates per match

1.89

1.48

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Vfb Marburg

1.38

Friedberg

1.89

allows per match

Vfb Marburg

1.48

Friedberg

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfb Marburg ↓

Friedberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vfb Marburg or draw

57%

Vfb Marburg or Friedberg

76%

Draw or Friedberg

67%

Winning margin

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+

15%

Friedberg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals

77%

Vfb Marburg 2+ goals

42%

Vfb Marburg 3+ goals

18%

Friedberg 1+ goals

82%

Friedberg 2+ goals

50%

Friedberg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)

43%

Friedberg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfb Marburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfb Marburg attack 1.38 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Friedberg attack 1.89 + Vfb Marburg defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vfb Marburg scores more

33%

level

24%

Friedberg scores more

43%

Friedberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff