Friedberg 3–1 Vfb Marburg: Result & Stats

Friedberg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Vfb Marburg

9/27/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 10Rasenplatz Friedberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Friedberg57%

×Draw20%

Vfb Marburg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FriedbergExpected goals in this matchVfb Marburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.42

Friedberg

2.29

Vfb Marburg

1.42

Friedberg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

2.46

creates per match

1.31

1.52

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Friedberg

2.46

Vfb Marburg

1.31

allows per match

Friedberg

1.52

Vfb Marburg

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Vfb Marburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw

77%

Friedberg or Vfb Marburg

80%

Draw or Vfb Marburg

43%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+

35%

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals

90%

Friedberg 2+ goals

66%

Friedberg 3+ goals

40%

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals

76%

Vfb Marburg 2+ goals

41%

Vfb Marburg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)

71%

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.29

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Friedberg scores more

57%

level

20%

Vfb Marburg scores more

23%

Friedberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff