Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vfb Marburg vs FC Gießen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Gießen
FC Gießen
10/18/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 13Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vfb Marburg33%
×Draw24%
FC Gießen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfb Marburg
1.44
FC Gießen
1.69

FC Gießen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Vfb Marburg
1.38
FC Gießen
1.91

allows per match

Vfb Marburg
1.48
FC Gießen
1.49

finishing

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par
FC Gießen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfb Marburg ↓

FC Gießen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vfb Marburg or draw
56%
Vfb Marburg or FC Gießen
76%
Draw or FC Gießen
67%

Winning margin

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
15%
FC Gießen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
76%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
42%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
18%
FC Gießen 1+ goals
82%
FC Gießen 2+ goals
50%
FC Gießen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
43%
FC Gießen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfb Marburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

FC Gießen away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfb Marburg attack 1.38 + FC Gießen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Gießen attack 1.91 + Vfb Marburg defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vfb Marburg scores more
33%
level
24%
FC Gießen scores more
44%

FC Gießen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Gießen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vfb Marburg vs FC Gießen

Vfb Marburg beat FC Gießen 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße in Marburg.