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FC Gießen vs Vfb Marburg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC Gießen
FC Gießen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
11/25/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 19Waldstadion Gießen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC Gießen62%
×Draw20%
Vfb Marburg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gießen
2.21
Vfb Marburg
1.10

FC Gießen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

FC Gießen
2.30
Vfb Marburg
1.31

allows per match

FC Gießen
0.89
Vfb Marburg
2.13

finishing

FC Gießen+0.00on par
Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gießen ↓

Vfb Marburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Gießen or draw
82%
FC Gießen or Vfb Marburg
80%
Draw or Vfb Marburg
38%

Winning margin

FC Gießen wins by 2+
39%
Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Gießen 1+ goals
89%
FC Gießen 2+ goals
65%
FC Gießen 3+ goals
38%
Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
67%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
30%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Gießen (draw refunded)
78%
Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gießen at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gießen attack 2.30 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + FC Gießen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Gießen scores more
62%
level
20%
Vfb Marburg scores more
18%

FC Gießen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Gießen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Gießen vs Vfb Marburg

FC Gießen beat Vfb Marburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion Gießen in Gießen.