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Vfb Marburg vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
8/20/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vfb Marburg34%
×Draw25%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfb Marburg
1.37
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.54

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vfb Marburg
1.38
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

Vfb Marburg
1.48
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfb Marburg ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vfb Marburg or draw
59%
Vfb Marburg or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
75%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
66%

Winning margin

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
15%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
75%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
40%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
16%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
79%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
45%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
45%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfb Marburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfb Marburg attack 1.38 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + Vfb Marburg defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vfb Marburg scores more
34%
level
25%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
41%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vfb Marburg vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf

Eintracht Stadtallendorf beat Vfb Marburg 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße in Marburg.