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Eintracht Stadtallendorf vs Vfb Marburg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
4/2/2026Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 26Kunstrasenplatz 2 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf57%
×Draw21%
Vfb Marburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
2.13
Vfb Marburg
1.27

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 68% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
2.13
Vfb Marburg
1.31

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.24
Vfb Marburg
2.13

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par
Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

Vfb Marburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw
78%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf or Vfb Marburg
79%
Draw or Vfb Marburg
43%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
35%
Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
63%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
35%
Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
72%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
36%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
72%
Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
57%
level
21%
Vfb Marburg scores more
22%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Stadtallendorf vs Vfb Marburg

Eintracht Stadtallendorf beat Vfb Marburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 2 Stadtallendorf in Stadtallendorf.