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Veszprém vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Móri SE
Móri SE
Z. Galfi 90+4'
N. Major 79'
D. Bartusz 19'
M. Hajdu 35'
5/3/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 34Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Veszprém67%
×Draw19%
Móri SE14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
2.19
Móri SE
0.89

Veszprém creates 146% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.90
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Veszprém
0.61
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
86%
Veszprém or Móri SE
81%
Draw or Móri SE
33%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
43%
Móri SE wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
89%
Veszprém 2+ goals
64%
Veszprém 3+ goals
37%
Móri SE 1+ goals
59%
Móri SE 2+ goals
22%
Móri SE 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
83%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.61 · 67 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.90 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.19

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Veszprém defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Veszprém scores more
67%
level
19%
Móri SE scores more
14%

Veszprém at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
D. Bartusz
35'
M. Hajdu
79'
N. Major
90+4'
Z. Galfi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Veszprém 3–1 Móri SE

Veszprém beat Móri SE 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Bartusz (19'), M. Hajdu (35'), N. Major (79'), Z. Galfi (90+4').

The match was played at Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum in Ajka.