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Móri SE vs Veszprém — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
0 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Veszprém
Veszprém
10/30/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 15Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE16%
×Draw21%
Veszprém64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
0.89
Veszprém
2.03

Veszprém creates 128% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Veszprém
1.64

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Veszprém
1.09

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Veszprém+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Veszprém →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
36%
Móri SE or Veszprém
79%
Draw or Veszprém
84%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
5%
Veszprém wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
59%
Móri SE 2+ goals
22%
Móri SE 3+ goals
6%
Veszprém 1+ goals
87%
Veszprém 2+ goals
60%
Veszprém 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
20%
Veszprém (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Veszprém away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Veszprém defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Veszprém attack 1.64 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Móri SE scores more
16%
level
21%
Veszprém scores more
64%

Veszprém at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 0–3 Veszprém

Veszprém beat Móri SE 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.