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Veszprém vs Kelen — NB III - Northwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kelen
Kelen
8/7/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 2Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Veszprém57%
×Draw23%
Kelen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
1.81
Kelen
0.95

Veszprém creates 91% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 39 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.53
Kelen
0.85

allows per match

Veszprém
1.04
Kelen
2.08

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Kelen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Kelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
80%
Veszprém or Kelen
77%
Draw or Kelen
43%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
33%
Kelen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
84%
Veszprém 2+ goals
54%
Veszprém 3+ goals
27%
Kelen 1+ goals
61%
Kelen 2+ goals
25%
Kelen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
75%
Kelen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Kelen away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.53 + Kelen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kelen attack 0.85 + Veszprém defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Veszprém scores more
57%
level
23%
Kelen scores more
20%

Veszprém at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veszprém vs Kelen

Veszprém beat Kelen 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Veszprém.