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Kelen vs Veszprém — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Veszprém
Veszprém
3/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 27Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kelen29%
×Draw27%
Veszprém44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.08
Veszprém
1.38

Veszprém creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.08
Veszprém
1.64

allows per match

Kelen
1.11
Veszprém
1.09

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Veszprém+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Veszprém →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
56%
Kelen or Veszprém
73%
Draw or Veszprém
71%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
11%
Veszprém wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
66%
Kelen 2+ goals
29%
Kelen 3+ goals
10%
Veszprém 1+ goals
75%
Veszprém 2+ goals
40%
Veszprém 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
40%
Veszprém (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Veszprém away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Veszprém defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Veszprém attack 1.64 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kelen scores more
29%
level
27%
Veszprém scores more
44%

Veszprém at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Kelen 1–1 Veszprém

Kelen and Veszprém drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.