Vestri 0–2 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Vestri

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Valur Reykjavik

P. Pedersen 78' (pen)

T. Haraldsson 18'

7/5/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 14Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vestri33%

×Draw24%

Valur Reykjavik42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.59

Vestri

1.39

Valur Reykjavik

1.59

Valur Reykjavik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

0.94

creates per match

1.50

1.69

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vestri

0.94

Valur Reykjavik

1.50

allows per match

Vestri

1.69

Valur Reykjavik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

58%

Vestri or Valur Reykjavik

76%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

67%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

15%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

75%

Vestri 2+ goals

40%

Vestri 3+ goals

16%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

80%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

47%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

44%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 0.94 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.50 + Vestri defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vestri scores more

33%

level

24%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

42%

Valur Reykjavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Haraldsson

41'

G. Svavarsson← A. Kralj

45'

T. Magnusson

46'

L. Heimisson← A. Skoglund

52'

62'

72'

75'

75'

75'

S. Larusson← T. Haraldsson

77'

G. Smit

78'

P. PedersenPenalty

81'

J. Palsson← J. Jonsson

81'

A. Palsson← P. Pedersen

84'

E. Duah← D. Montiel

84'

K. Grauberg← V. Tufegdzic

85'

E. Sigurbjornsson

89'

A. Hoti← K. Sigurdsson

Vestri

Valur

18

20

4

6

15

12

⚽

▼

Haraldsso

8

▼

Jonsson

2

Magnusson

9

⚽

▼

Pedersen

10

▼

Sigurdsso

14

▼

Skoglund

12

Smit

6

▼

Hauksson

3

▼

40

32

2

28

4

7

▼

Tufegdzic

5

▼

Phete

10

▼

Montiel

Manager: Davíð Smári Lamude

41'▲G. Svavarsson←▼A. Kralj

75'▲S. Fall←▼G. Hauksson

75'▲S. Songani←▼T. Phete

84'▲E. Duah←▼D. Montiel

84'▲K. Grauberg←▼V. Tufegdzic

Vestri substitutes

1Schubert22Gardarsson15Svavarsson77Fall19Duah29Grauberg23Songani

Manager: Srdjan Tufegdzic

46'▲L. Heimisson←▼A. Skoglund

75'▲S. Larusson←▼T. Haraldsson

81'▲J. Palsson←▼J. Jonsson

81'▲A. Palsson←▼P. Pedersen

89'▲A. Hoti←▼K. Sigurdsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

95Johannesson33Hoti11Larusson21Palsson16Stefansson13Kristjansson19Kjartansson23Palsson17Heimisson