Valur Reykjavik 1–1 Vestri: Result & Stats

Valur Reykjavik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vestri

P. Pedersen 65'

O. Omarsson 46' (OG)

4/6/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 1N1-völlurinn Hlíðarenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valur Reykjavik52%

×Draw22%

Vestri26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchVestri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.32

Valur Reykjavik

1.93

Vestri

1.32

Valur Reykjavik creates 46% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

2.25

creates per match

0.93

1.71

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Valur Reykjavik

2.25

Vestri

0.93

allows per match

Valur Reykjavik

1.71

Vestri

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur Reykjavik ↓

Vestri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Valur Reykjavik or draw

74%

Valur Reykjavik or Vestri

78%

Draw or Vestri

48%

Winning margin

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

29%

Vestri wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

57%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

30%

Vestri 1+ goals

73%

Vestri 2+ goals

38%

Vestri 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

66%

Vestri (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

Vestri away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.25 + Vestri defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Vestri attack 0.93 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valur Reykjavik scores more

52%

level

22%

Vestri scores more

26%

Valur Reykjavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

O. OmarssonOwn goal

49'

O. Omarsson

63'

B. Antonsson← O. Omarsson

63'

A. Johannsson← T. Magnusson

63'

K. Grauberg← V. Tufegdzic

65'

P. Pedersen↳ T. Haraldsson

66'

A. Johannsson

76'

G. Hauksson← D. Montiel

79'

L. Heimisson← A. Skoglund

79'

O. Kjartansson← T. Haraldsson

86'

S. Larusson← K. Sigurdsson

89'

E. Duah← J. Pedersen

89'

S. Songani← D. Jonsson

90+3'

H. Eyjolfsson

Valur

Vestri

12

32

2

3

40

77

28

▼

Pedersen

4

Gbadamosi

7

▼

Tufegdzic

10

▼

Montiel

8

▼

Jonsson

25

Agustsson

15

Eyjolfsso

20

🥅

▼

Omarsson

4

Nakkim

10

▼

Sigurdsso

5

Heimisson

2

▼

Magnusson

9

⚽

Pedersen

14

▼

Skoglund

8

Jonsson

12

A

▼

Haraldsso

Manager: Srdjan Tufegdzic

63'▲B. Antonsson←▼O. Omarsson

63'▲A. Johannsson←▼T. Magnusson

79'▲L. Heimisson←▼A. Skoglund

79'▲O. Kjartansson←▼T. Haraldsson

86'▲S. Larusson←▼K. Sigurdsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

1Kristinsson6Antonsson7Johannsson11Larusson13Kristjansson17Heimisson19Kjartansson33Hoti45Einarsson

Manager: Davíð Smári Lamude

63'▲K. Grauberg←▼V. Tufegdzic

76'▲G. Hauksson←▼D. Montiel

89'▲E. Duah←▼J. Pedersen

89'▲S. Songani←▼D. Jonsson

Vestri substitutes

1Schubert6Hauksson15Svavarsson17Einarsson19Duah23Songani29Grauberg