Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vestri vs KA Akureyri — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Vestri
Vestri
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
6/15/2025ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 11Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vestri37%
×Draw23%
KA Akureyri40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vestri
1.58
KA Akureyri
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vestri
0.89
KA Akureyri
1.55

allows per match

Vestri
1.74
KA Akureyri
2.27

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par
KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

KA Akureyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vestri or draw
60%
Vestri or KA Akureyri
77%
Draw or KA Akureyri
63%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+
18%
KA Akureyri wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals
79%
Vestri 2+ goals
47%
Vestri 3+ goals
21%
KA Akureyri 1+ goals
81%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
49%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)
48%
KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 0.89 + KA Akureyri defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

KA Akureyri attack 1.55 + Vestri defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vestri scores more
37%
level
23%
KA Akureyri scores more
40%

KA Akureyri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Úrvalsdeild: Vestri 1–0 KA Akureyri

Vestri beat KA Akureyri 1-0 in Úrvalsdeild on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass in Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær.