Vestri 0–2 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

Vestri

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

KA Akureyri

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson 75', 45' (pen)

7/14/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Round 14Kerecisvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vestri37%

×Draw24%

KA Akureyri40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.63

Vestri

1.56

KA Akureyri

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

0.89

creates per match

1.52

1.74

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Vestri

0.89

KA Akureyri

1.52

allows per match

Vestri

1.74

KA Akureyri

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

60%

Vestri or KA Akureyri

76%

Draw or KA Akureyri

63%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

18%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

79%

Vestri 2+ goals

46%

Vestri 3+ goals

21%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

80%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

48%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

48%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 0.89 + KA Akureyri defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

KA Akureyri attack 1.52 + Vestri defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vestri scores more

37%

level

24%

KA Akureyri scores more

40%

KA Akureyri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

E. Garðarsson← J. Gertsen

32'

S. Songani

38'

Rodri

40'

H. Willard← Rodri

45'

W. Eskelinen

45'

Hallgrímur SteingrímssonPenalty

46'

A. Bjarnason← P. Bjarnason

55'

D. Hafsteinsson

61'

Á. Sigurgeirsson← V. Kjartansson

64'

S. Hauksson

69'

E. Gardarsson

72'

B. Baldvinsson

75'

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson↳ H. Willard

76'

G. Hauksson← S. Fall

77'

A. Sigurgeirsson

80'

V. Tufegdžić← B. Warén

81'

G. Svavarsson← S. Songani

83'

85'

90+1'

90+2'

90+5'

90'

J. Árnason← S. Hauksson

Vestri

KA

13

28

5

2

3

10

⚽2

Steingrím

4

▼

Rodri

7

Hafsteins

77

Aðalstein

30

▼

Hauksson

23

▼

30

32

2

77

▼

Fall

20

▼

Gertsen

23

▼

Songani

11

▼

4

6

10

19

▼

Bjarnason

Manager: D. Lamude

7'▲E. Garðarsson←▼J. Gertsen

46'▲A. Bjarnason←▼P. Bjarnason

76'▲G. Hauksson←▼S. Fall

80'▲V. Tufegdžić←▼B. Warén

81'▲G. Svavarsson←▼S. Songani

Vestri substitutes

22Garðarsson9Bjarnason17Hauksson7Tufegdžić15Svavarsson3Baldvinsson1Steinarsson

Manager: H. Jónasson

40'▲H. Willard←▼Rodri

61'▲Á. Sigurgeirsson←▼V. Kjartansson

90'▲J. Árnason←▼S. Hauksson

KA Akureyri substitutes

8Willard11Sigurgeirsson29Árnason26Støle18Aðalsteinsson12Jajalo14Stefánsson