Vestri 0–5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar: Result & Stats

Vestri

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

H. Ragnarsson 84', 41'

G. Hauksson 45' (OG)

O. Heidarsson 45'

S. Magnusson 10'

9/28/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 2Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vestri36%

×Draw24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.53

Vestri

1.45

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

0.89

creates per match

1.32

1.74

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vestri

0.89

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.32

allows per match

Vestri

1.74

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

60%

Vestri or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

76%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

64%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

17%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

77%

Vestri 2+ goals

42%

Vestri 3+ goals

18%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

78%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

45%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

48%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 0.89 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.32 + Vestri defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vestri scores more

36%

level

24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

40%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Magnusson↳ A. Hilmarsson

32'

E. Sigurbjornsson

41'

H. Ragnarsson

45'

G. HaukssonOwn goal

45'

O. Heidarsson↳ H. Ragnarsson

46'

E. Gardarsson← G. Hauksson

46'

J. Pettersen← A. Hilmarsson

50'

E. Gardarsson

74'

P. Bjarnason← V. Tufegdzic

74'

B. Eydal← T. Phete

74'

E. Duah← D. Montiel

78'

S. Hjaltested← O. Heidarsson

79'

B. Hlynsson← E. Bwomono

82'

G. Svavarsson← A. Kralj

84'

H. Ragnarsson↳ B. Baxter

85'

N. Nokkvason← V. Valor

85'

V. Thorvardarson← H. Ragnarsson

Vestri

IBV

1

Zapytowsk

42

▼

Bwomono

2

⚽

Magnusson

5

Edeland

23

Kristinss

30

▼

Valor

45

A

Baxter

25

A

▼

Hilmarsso

14

Gunnarsso

24

⚽2A

▼

Ragnarsso

22

⚽

▼

Heidarsso

12

Smit

6

🥅

▼

2

32

40

3

▼

Kralj

8

Hlynsson

5

▼

Phete

28

Pedersen

10

▼

Montiel

7

▼

Tufegdzic

Manager: Davíð Smári Lamude

46'▲E. Gardarsson←▼G. Hauksson

74'▲P. Bjarnason←▼V. Tufegdzic

74'▲B. Eydal←▼T. Phete

74'▲E. Duah←▼D. Montiel

82'▲G. Svavarsson←▼A. Kralj

Vestri substitutes

1Schubert9Bjarnason14Eydal15Svavarsson19Duah22Gardarsson29Selven

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

46'▲J. Pettersen←▼A. Hilmarsson

78'▲S. Hjaltested←▼O. Heidarsson

79'▲B. Hlynsson←▼E. Bwomono

85'▲N. Nokkvason←▼V. Valor

85'▲V. Thorvardarson←▼H. Ragnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

31Arnarsson4Nokkvason7Pettersen10Hjaltested11Thorvardarson21Hlynsson28Erlingsson