IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1–2 Vestri: Result & Stats

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vestri

Í. Sigurgeirsson 55'

V. Júlíusson 82'

Nacho Gil 74'

9/19/2021

1. Deild · Round 19Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar56%

×Draw20%

Vestri24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IBV VestmannaeyjarExpected goals in this matchVestri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.48

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.30

Vestri

1.48

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

3.33

creates per match

1.64

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

3.33

Vestri

1.64

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.33

Vestri

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Vestri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw

76%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Vestri

80%

Draw or Vestri

44%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

34%

Vestri wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

90%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

67%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

40%

Vestri 1+ goals

77%

Vestri 2+ goals

43%

Vestri 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

70%

Vestri (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Vestri away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 3.33 + Vestri defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.30

Vestri attack 1.64 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

56%

level

20%

Vestri scores more

24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

N. Gil

46'

F. Fridriksson

48'

E. Gardarsson

53'

Meneses Chechu

55'

Í. Sigurgeirsson

66'

J. Hjaltason

70'

P. Bjarnason

73'

G. Svavarsson← L. Rae

74'

B. Ómarsson← S. Conneh

74'

Nacho Gil

79'

V. Júlíusson← D. Osafo-Badu

82'

S. Magnússon← A. Andrason

82'

V. Júlíusson

87'

F. Fridriksson

87'

F. Fridriksson

88'

S. Benónýsson← J. Hjaltason

IBV

Vestri

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Sigurðsson

74'▲B. Ómarsson←▼S. Conneh

82'▲S. Magnússon←▼A. Andrason

88'▲S. Benónýsson←▼J. Hjaltason

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

ÓmarssonMagnússonBenónýssonEiríkssonGeirssonSeoaneEysteinsson

Manager: J. Hauksson

73'▲G. Svavarsson←▼L. Rae

79'▲V. Júlíusson←▼D. Osafo-Badu

Vestri substitutes

SvavarssonJúlíussonDijkÁsgeirsson