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Litex vs Arda Kardzhali — Second League 2018

Litex
Litex
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
8/13/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 3Gradski stadion (Lovech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Litex35%
×Draw30%
Arda Kardzhali34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Litex
1.04
Arda Kardzhali
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Litex
1.21
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

allows per match

Litex
0.78
Arda Kardzhali
0.87

finishing

Litex+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Litex or draw
66%
Litex or Arda Kardzhali
70%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
65%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+
14%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals
65%
Litex 2+ goals
28%
Litex 3+ goals
9%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
64%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
27%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)
51%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Litex scores more
35%
level
30%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
34%

Litex at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Litex vs Arda Kardzhali

Litex beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 in Second League on August 13, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Lovech).