Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Litex: Result & Stats

Arda Kardzhali

FT

1 – 0

Litex

2/23/2019

Second League · Round 18Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali59%

×Draw27%

Litex15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchLitex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.58

Arda Kardzhali

1.46

Litex

0.58

Arda Kardzhali creates 152% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

1.67

creates per match

0.84

0.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

Litex

0.84

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

0.33

Litex

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Litex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

85%

Arda Kardzhali or Litex

73%

Draw or Litex

41%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

30%

Litex wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

77%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

43%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

18%

Litex 1+ goals

44%

Litex 2+ goals

12%

Litex 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

80%

Litex (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Litex attack 0.84 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

59%

level

27%

Litex scores more

15%

Arda Kardzhali at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff