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Verona U19 vs Torino U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Verona U19
Verona U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torino U19
Torino U19
10/7/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Sinergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Verona U1948%
×Draw23%
Torino U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verona U19
1.86
Torino U19
1.40

Verona U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Verona U19
1.82
Torino U19
1.32

allows per match

Verona U19
1.47
Torino U19
1.91

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par
Torino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Torino U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw
71%
Verona U19 or Torino U19
77%
Draw or Torino U19
52%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+
27%
Torino U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals
84%
Verona U19 2+ goals
55%
Verona U19 3+ goals
28%
Torino U19 1+ goals
75%
Torino U19 2+ goals
41%
Torino U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Torino U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Torino U19 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 1.82 + Torino U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Torino U19 attack 1.32 + Verona U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Verona U19 scores more
48%
level
23%
Torino U19 scores more
29%

Verona U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Verona U19 1–0 Torino U19

Verona U19 beat Torino U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sinergy Stadium in Verona.