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Torino U19 vs Verona U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U19
Torino U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Verona U19
Verona U19
3/18/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24Stadio Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torino U1946%
×Draw24%
Verona U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U19
1.64
Verona U19
1.25

Torino U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Torino U19
1.58
Verona U19
1.31

allows per match

Torino U19
1.19
Verona U19
1.69

finishing

Torino U19+0.00on par
Verona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U19 ↓

Verona U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Torino U19 or draw
71%
Torino U19 or Verona U19
76%
Draw or Verona U19
54%

Winning margin

Torino U19 wins by 2+
24%
Verona U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torino U19 1+ goals
81%
Torino U19 2+ goals
49%
Torino U19 3+ goals
23%
Verona U19 1+ goals
71%
Verona U19 2+ goals
36%
Verona U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torino U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Verona U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Verona U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U19 attack 1.58 + Verona U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Verona U19 attack 1.31 + Torino U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torino U19 scores more
46%
level
24%
Verona U19 scores more
29%

Torino U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Torino U19 1–1 Verona U19

Torino U19 and Verona U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Silvio Piola in Vercelli.