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Verona U19 vs Fiorentina U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Verona U19
Verona U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina U19
Fiorentina U19
3/13/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 23Sinergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Verona U1944%
×Draw24%
Fiorentina U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verona U19
1.69
Fiorentina U19
1.44

Verona U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Verona U19
1.82
Fiorentina U19
1.42

allows per match

Verona U19
1.47
Fiorentina U19
1.55

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par
Fiorentina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Fiorentina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw
67%
Verona U19 or Fiorentina U19
76%
Draw or Fiorentina U19
56%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+
23%
Fiorentina U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals
82%
Verona U19 2+ goals
50%
Verona U19 3+ goals
24%
Fiorentina U19 1+ goals
76%
Fiorentina U19 2+ goals
42%
Fiorentina U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Fiorentina U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Fiorentina U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 1.82 + Fiorentina U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fiorentina U19 attack 1.42 + Verona U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Verona U19 scores more
44%
level
24%
Fiorentina U19 scores more
33%

Verona U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verona U19 vs Fiorentina U19

Fiorentina U19 beat Verona U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sinergy Stadium in Verona.