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Fiorentina U19 vs Verona U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U19
Fiorentina U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Verona U19
Verona U19
11/6/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fiorentina U1945%
×Draw24%
Verona U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U19
1.67
Verona U19
1.37

Fiorentina U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U19
1.66
Verona U19
1.31

allows per match

Fiorentina U19
1.43
Verona U19
1.69

finishing

Fiorentina U19+0.00on par
Verona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U19 ↓

Verona U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fiorentina U19 or draw
68%
Fiorentina U19 or Verona U19
76%
Draw or Verona U19
55%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U19 wins by 2+
23%
Verona U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fiorentina U19 1+ goals
81%
Fiorentina U19 2+ goals
50%
Fiorentina U19 3+ goals
23%
Verona U19 1+ goals
75%
Verona U19 2+ goals
40%
Verona U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Verona U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Verona U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U19 attack 1.66 + Verona U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Verona U19 attack 1.31 + Fiorentina U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fiorentina U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
Verona U19 scores more
32%

Fiorentina U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fiorentina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina U19 vs Verona U19

Fiorentina U19 and Verona U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.