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Verl U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Verl U19
Verl U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
3/11/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 15Poststadion Kunstrasen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Verl U1926%
×Draw21%
MSV Duisburg U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verl U19
1.42
MSV Duisburg U19
2.07

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

creates per match

Verl U19
0.96
MSV Duisburg U19
1.35

allows per match

Verl U19
2.79
MSV Duisburg U19
1.87

finishing

Verl U19+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verl U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Verl U19 or draw
48%
Verl U19 or MSV Duisburg U19
79%
Draw or MSV Duisburg U19
74%

Winning margin

Verl U19 wins by 2+
12%
MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Verl U19 1+ goals
76%
Verl U19 2+ goals
41%
Verl U19 3+ goals
17%
MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
87%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
61%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Verl U19 (draw refunded)
33%
MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verl U19 at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.87 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verl U19 attack 0.96 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.42

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.35 + Verl U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Verl U19 scores more
26%
level
21%
MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
52%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Verl U19 0 – 1 MSV Duisburg U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Verl U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Poststadion Kunstrasen 1 in Verl.