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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Verl U19
Verl U19
2/4/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 15BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1957%
×Draw21%
Verl U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg U19
2.14
Verl U19
1.27

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 23 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.57
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.44
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw
78%
MSV Duisburg U19 or Verl U19
79%
Draw or Verl U19
43%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
35%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
88%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
63%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
36%
Verl U19 1+ goals
72%
Verl U19 2+ goals
36%
Verl U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.14

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
57%
level
21%
Verl U19 scores more
22%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Verl U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Verl U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.