Verl U19 0–6 Borussia M'bach U19: Result & Stats

Verl U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Borussia M'bach U19

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 22Zum Furlbach Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Verl U1916%

×Draw17%

Borussia M'bach U1967%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Verl U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.58

Verl U19

1.20

Borussia M'bach U19

2.58

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 70 away

0.96

creates per match

2.37

2.79

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Verl U19

0.96

Borussia M'bach U19

2.37

allows per match

Verl U19

2.79

Borussia M'bach U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Verl U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verl U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Verl U19 or draw

33%

Verl U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

83%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

84%

Winning margin

Verl U19 wins by 2+

6%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Verl U19 1+ goals

70%

Verl U19 2+ goals

34%

Verl U19 3+ goals

12%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

92%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

72%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Verl U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verl U19 at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.44 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verl U19 attack 0.96 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.37 + Verl U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Verl U19 scores more

16%

level

17%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

67%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff