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Borussia M'bach U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Verl U19
Verl U19
10/29/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 9Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1965%
×Draw18%
Verl U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia M'bach U19
2.50
Verl U19
1.20

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 23 away

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19
2.30
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19
1.31
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw
83%
Borussia M'bach U19 or Verl U19
82%
Draw or Verl U19
35%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
43%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
92%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
71%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
45%
Verl U19 1+ goals
70%
Verl U19 2+ goals
34%
Verl U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
80%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.50

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
65%
level
18%
Verl U19 scores more
17%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs Verl U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Verl U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.